President Trump signed an interim memorandum of understanding with Iran aimed at de-escalating hostilities and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Then, almost in the same breath, he warned that military force is very much still on the table if Iran doesn’t hold up its end of the bargain.
The deal and the threat
The MoU, announced around June 15-17, represents the most significant diplomatic contact between Washington and Tehran in years. Its primary objective is straightforward: end the current hostilities and reopen critical shipping lanes, particularly the Strait of Hormuz, which serves as the chokepoint for roughly a fifth of the world’s oil supply.
Trump’s simultaneous threat of renewed strikes if Iran fails to comply with the agreement’s terms has created an unusual dynamic. Regional powers facilitated the discussions, underscoring just how many stakeholders have skin in this game.
The 2025-2026 period has seen repeated military threats from Trump deployed as negotiating leverage, a strategy that dates back to his cancellation of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal.
