The Federal Reserve’s latest Summary of Economic Projections shows core PCE inflation projected at 3.3% for 2026 and 2.5% for 2027.
The numbers tell a stubborn story
April 2026’s core PCE reading came in at 3.3% year-over-year, released on May 28. That was a tick higher than March’s 3.2% figure.
Headline PCE, which includes food and energy categories, was running around 3.8% in April.
For context, core PCE was hovering near 2.8% at the start of 2024. The move to 3.3% represents a reversal that complicates assumptions about rate cuts, consumer spending, and portfolio positioning.
