APLONDON: Voters in Makerfield in Wigan, Greater Manchester, potentially hold the keys to No. 10 when they vote in a high-stakes byelection on Thursday.The former coal mining town has been Labour since its creation in 1983 and is the kind of red wall seat Labour never dreamt of losing in the past.Now Makerfield is suddenly at the epicentre of British politics as a battle is underway between Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham, standing for Labour, and local plumber Robert Kenyon, standing for Reform UK, to win Thursday’s byelection.Burnham has made it clear he will immediately trigger a leadership contest to oust UK PM Keir Starmer if elected as MP on Thursday.The byelection was triggered by former sitting Labour MP Josh Simons announcing on May 14 — a week after Labour’s disastrous local election results — that he would stand down to create a vacancy to allow Burnham to stand to give him a route back to Parliament. Burnham was a Labour MP until 2017.The same day former health secretary Wes Streeting quit the Cabinet saying Starmer lacked vision and direction. But he did not trigger a leadership contest, saying he wanted to give Burnham a chance to take part in it.Speaking from the G7 summit on Wednesday, PM Starmer said a leadership contest would be a “bad thing” for the country and vowed to fight any challenge. He said Labour would need to focus on the potential mayoral election that would follow and promised to give Burnham a “big job” in his govt. If Reform UK wins, it will derail Burnham’s ambition to become PM, be hugely damaging for Labour, and will intensify calls for Starmer to resign.Polls show it is a tight race with Burnham holding a narrow 5-point lead over Kenyon, suggesting Burnham’s popularity as mayor may be helping Labour outperform its broader party brand.It is Restore UK, which is in third place in the polls and positions itself as more right-wing than Reform UK, which could catapult Burnham to victory by splitting the Right vote. Meanwhile, Green and Lib Dems voters are thought to be lending their votes to Burnham. Labour’s five-point lead is smaller than Restore Britain’s current vote share, according to Opinium.