IEA warns of slow Gulf oil recovery even as Hormuz deal nears | The National

The Ruhr Oel petroleum refineries in western Germany. Global oil demand is forecast to decline by 1.1 million bpd this year. AFPThe Ruhr Oel petroleum refineries in western Germany. Global oil demand is forecast to decline by 1.1 million bpd this year. AFPSupply to fall by 3.9 million bpd this year before rebounding in 2027, while demand drops for first time since 2020

Global oil supply will fall 3.9 million bpd in 2026 to 102.4 million bpd, then rebound by 8 million bpd to 110.3 million bpd in 2027.

Demand will decline by 1.1 million bpd this year, with a 5 million bpd second‑quarter plunge, the first quarterly drop since 2020.

The US‑Iran interim deal reopens Hormuz, but demining and unresolved transit issues mean Gulf output and exports will recover only gradually, with risks remaining.

Shipments via Hormuz are rising from 9.6 million bpd in May to about 12 million bpd, aided by Gulf of Oman ship‑to‑ship transfers.