President Donald Trump‘s memorandum of understanding with Iran leaves the big-ticket item, Iran’s nuclear program, unresolved. Everything else counts as noise until that concern is addressed. We need to know what will happen to Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile and its nuclear infrastructure.The leaked reports on this deal invite concern: a $300 billion reconstruction fund for the regime that the Gulf countries will pay into. However the United States describes it, this fund will be seen as a tax America’s allies must pay to keep Iran’s drones away. But giving tribute to Tehran without first agreeing on the future of its nuclear portfolio is unwise. It disincentivizes the Iranian regime to concede further, and it teaches Tehran that pressure pays.The American-Israeli military campaign has also shown the limits of airpower.
Further damaging the Iranian regime demanded either boots on the ground or American tolerance for an increased oil price shock. These were both heavy demands while public support for the war remained fragile. But Iran has its own problems: a broken economy and a brittle political order. The blockade choked its oil revenue, and the war shattered much of its military.
