We're targeting 35 pct electrification in less than 10 years - but 35 pct of what?

When Australia’s Chris Bowen and Turkey’s Murat Kurum unveiled their “35 by 35” flagship target at Bonn this month – raising electricity’s share of global Final Energy from around 20 per cent today to 35 per cent by 2035 – it was the most consequential framing decision in years of climate talks

After years of climate negotiations dominated by vague fossil fuel phase-down language, here was something concrete: a number, a date, a technology pathway. Electrification as the organising frame for decarbonisation. This is unambiguously the right direction.

But the metric they’ve chosen – electricity as a percentage of Final Energy – is the wrong ruler. And picking the wrong ruler yields the wrong measure. It can actively drive you toward the wrong decisions.

The efficiency distortion

Final Energy is the energy content of whatever is sold to end users — fuel in the tank, gas through the meter, kilowatt-hours on the bill. It includes all the energy that gets wasted before doing anything useful. And this is where the measurement trap springs.