The European Central Bank released its latest wage tracker on May 6, showing that negotiated wage growth across the eurozone is settling into a calmer rhythm. After a turbulent few years of post-pandemic salary catch-ups that saw wage growth spike above 5%, the numbers now point to a steady deceleration, landing at 2.6% for 2026 on an unsmoothed basis.
The numbers behind the moderation
Unsmoothed negotiated wage growth came in at 3.0% for 2025 and 2.6% for 2026, both figures unchanged from the March release. The smoothed versions, which iron out lumpy one-off payments, tell a similar story: 3.2% for 2025, dropping to 2.3% for 2026.
The quarterly trajectory for 2026 shows a gradual climb from roughly 1.8% in the first quarter to an expected 2.6% in the second half of the year. Year-over-year negotiated wages actually fell from 2.89% in Q4 2025 to 2.46% in Q1 2026, confirming the broader deceleration trend.
One caveat worth noting is coverage. The tracker covers 51.3% of employees in participating countries for 2025 data, dropping to 41.9% for 2026. That lower coverage for the current year means the 2026 figures could shift as more wage agreements filter in.
