about 1 hour ago
An apparent end to the conflict in the Middle East, and the fall in oil prices, may not be enough to stop official cash rate hikes. But, economists say, at least they'll be for good reasons.
It had been expected that central banks around the world, including in New Zealand, would need to hike interest rates to counteract inflation from rising fuel prices.
But economists say there are increasing signs that the worst-case inflation scenario won't now happen. We still might need to increase the official cash rate, but it's more likely to be because the economy is picking up again, than because external factors are making life tougher.
Infometrics chief forecaster Gareth Kiernan said data seemed to indicate that inflation could now be tracking a bit lower than had initially been forecast.
