Jeff Currie, the newly appointed executive co-chairman at Abaxx Markets, delivered a blunt assessment of the global oil supply picture on May 18: the market is in deficit, inventories are draining at an alarming pace, and the uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz isn’t going away anytime soon.
“The uncertainty remains quite high” around the Strait, Currie said, adding that maintaining the US-Iran ceasefire will prove challenging.
The inventory problem is worse than it looks
Asian oil markets have approached what traders call “tank bottoms,” the point where storage facilities are essentially running on fumes. Europe isn’t far behind. And Currie’s most striking claim: US storage could be effectively depleted by July 4, 2026.
Roughly 20-25% of the world’s seaborne oil trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz. When that chokepoint faces disruptions, the downstream effects ripple across every major importing region. The early 2026 disruptions created exactly this scenario, and the market is still digesting the consequences.
