Tisco Financial Group expects the global economy to face mounting challenges in the second half of 2026, warning that stagflation risks, elevated energy prices and geopolitical tensions could create a more volatile environment for investors.Paiboon Nalinthrangkurn, chief executive of Tisco Securities, said higher-for-longer interest rates, slowing economic growth and ongoing geopolitical conflicts are likely to weigh on financial markets and corporate earnings, making portfolio diversification increasingly important.
The global economy is not heading towards a severe recession, but risks from trade disputes, geopolitical uncertainty and rising energy costs continue to undermine growth prospects and investor confidence, he said.
Komsorn Prakobphol, head of the Economic Strategy Unit at Tisco Economic Strategy Unit, said recent economic indicators increasingly point to a stagflationary environment. US inflation has accelerated to 4.2%, the highest level in more than two years, driven largely by elevated energy prices.
Tisco ESU has identified three major risks for investors in the second half of the year: a potential oil shock stemming from escalating tensions in the Middle East, persistent pressure from elevated US Treasury yields, and stagflation that could negatively affect both corporate earnings and equity valuations.
