Inflation is predicted to cool but uncertainty over AI-driven growth and trade policy poses risks in the year ahead
The global economy proved to be more resilient in 2025 than had been feared, despite severe headwinds that ranged from Donald Trump’s trade war to geopolitical tensions and the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East.
Entering the new year, the hope is that the worst of the recent inflation shock has passed, as the world’s most powerful central banks lower interest rates. However, the pre-Covid age of rock-bottom borrowing costs is a distant memory, global growth is slowing and conditions remain fragile.
Here are five key charts underpinning the economic outlook for 2026.
After years of hype, the catalytic potential of artificial intelligence will feature heavily for the global economy in 2026. Could companies ploughing vast sums into datacentres, IT and automation kickstart productivity growth? Or could enthusiasm wane amid investor fears of a bubble in the US stock market fuelled by stratospheric valuations for AI companies?
