US manufacturing output flatlined in May, posting a 0.0% change after a 0.7% increase in April, according to Federal Reserve data. Four consecutive months of gains came to an abrupt halt as supply chain disruptions and rising input costs squeezed the sector from both sides.
The stall is particularly striking because it arrived alongside what looked like a strong headline number from the other major manufacturing gauge. The ISM Manufacturing PMI climbed to 54.0 in May, up from 52.7 in April, marking a fifth straight month of expansion and the highest reading since May 2022. In English: one survey says factories are busier than they’ve been in three years, while actual output data says nothing moved.
Two data sets, two very different stories
That divergence is exactly what happened in May. The ISM production sub-index came in at a healthy 54.3, suggesting factory floors were humming. But the supplier deliveries index told a different story, sitting at 60.6. Anything above 50 on that metric means deliveries are slowing down, and 60.6 represents significant delays.
Total industrial production, which includes mining and utilities alongside manufacturing, managed only a 0.1% increase for the month. Manufacturing, the largest component, contributed exactly nothing to that figure.
