Welcome to The Athletic’s daily World Cup cheatsheet, your guide to which teams are up, which are down — with the data analysis to back it up.We will unpack the key talking points from each matchday and give you the stats you need to stay in the know. And if you want to go deeper don’t worry, we will point you in the direction of some of The Athletic’s best World Cup coverage.What happened on day four of the World Cup?It was a day of superlatives, with the Netherlands and Japan’s 2-2 draw the most entertaining game so far. Well, to be more precise, the most entertaining half: all four goals came in a riveting second period.Germany’s 7-1 defeat of Curacao was obviously the most one-sided game yet (and, oddly, the cleanest game, with not a single yellow card being shown). Inevitably this raised the question of whether the expansion of this tournament from 32 to 48 teams has diluted the quality too much. Perhaps, although, to be fair, the last time Germany won 7-1 at the World Cup, their victims that day were… Brazil.Germany winning 7-1 is an increasingly-common scoreline at World Cups – Nico Schlotterbeck scored their second goal (RONALDO SCHEMIDT / AFP via Getty Images)The goalframe played a starring role in Ivory Coast’s 1-0 win over Ecuador. The ball came back off the woodwork a remarkable four times — that’s 44 percent of all woodwork hits in the tournament. Clearly goalframes in Philadelphia possess main character energy.And then there was Sweden. Their 5-1 thrashing of Tunisia in the late game was the first time they have scored five or more in a World Cup game since 1938. It took the total number of goals on Sunday to 19, which is the most on a single day in the World Cup since 1962, and the third-highest total on a day with four games.Superlative Sunday: you will not be forgotten.What does that mean for the tournament?Ecuador’s defeat was a continuation of a surprisingly poor start for teams from CONMEBOL (the South American federation), with only one point from their first three games — that’s the worst start for South American teams since 1974.By contrast, teams from Asia (which in international soccer includes Australia) have overperformed and are undefeated in four games.Teams from CONMEBOL have won the World Cup 10 times. Only one Asian side has ever got as far as the semi-finals (South Korea in 2002).Could the balance of power be shifting? It is still early and these emerging trends will be put to the test in today’s match up between Saudi Arabia and Uruguay.On Sunday Ecuador continued the slow start of South American teams (CHARLY TRIBALLEAU / AFP via Getty Images)Thing to tell a friend or colleague todayIt is the biggest World Cup in history, but its global influence stretches beyond the record 48 teams competing. Of the 1,248 players involved, 292 were born outside the nations they represent, with that group including players from 19 countries that did not qualify.Yesterday, Japan’s goal was entrusted to Zion Suzuki, who hails from Arkansas and is the son of a Ghanaian father and Japanese mother. Today, Cape Verde make their World Cup debut against Spain, a brutal first assignment, but at least they can call upon a little luck of the Irish. Among their ranks is Roberto ‘Pico’ Lopes, a 33-year-old centre-back born in Dublin, who will need more than good fortune to keep the Spanish at bay.It is France, though, who have the widest tournament reach, with 98 players at this World Cup born there. Flaky croissants, fine wine, and world-class footballers — it seems the world just cannot get enough of French produce.Stat of the dayLining up in a 4-3-3 and dominating possession with 60 per cent of the ball, the Netherlands’ performance against Japan followed a distinctly Dutch blueprint. That short-passing style, woven indelibly into the country’s soccer identity, took root in their club system, most notably at Ajax in the 1970s.But while that club legacy endures, there is no direct line from the Eredivisie to Ronald Koeman’s 2026 Oranje iteration. For the first time in their World Cup history, spanning 56 matches, the Netherlands named a starting XI without a single player based in their domestic league.The absence reflects the Eredivisie’s diminished stature. Once one of the most respected leagues in the world, it now has fewer players at this World Cup (30) than the Championship. England’s second tier (37).Match-up of the day to look out forMohamed Salah and Kevin De Bruyne have departed the Premier League stage, but for eight seasons they were its defining attacking forces. From Salah’s arrival at Liverpool in 2017 to De Bruyne’s Manchester City departure in 2025, they were the competition’s creative giants, winning two Premier League Player of the Season awards apiece.Today, their rivalry resumes on a new stage, as De Bruyne’s Belgium face Salah’s Egypt in their first World Cup meeting. Salah, lovingly dubbed the Egyptian King by Liverpool fans, holds the head-to-head edge, winning five and drawing four of their 12 Premier League encounters.Salah, a four-time Premier League Golden Boot winner, has scored eight goals in those games, twice De Bruyne’s tally. The Belgian is better known for his playmaking, though, and leads in assists and chances created.It is a tall order for Salah to extend that Premier League dominance to the international scene, with De Bruyne benefiting from a far stronger supporting cast while Egypt often remain reliant on the former Liverpool star for inspiration.Mohamed Salah joins the World Cup party on day five (Kirk Irwin/Getty Images)Who’s winning the World Cup?So it turns out that winning 7-1 in your opening game of a World Cup in which eight of the 12 third-placed teams get through is a positive thing.How do we know? Well, The Athletic’s projections now have Germany with a 99 percent chance of making the knockout rounds — which is the best rate of any team to play a game at the World Cup. Mexico is on 98 percent, the USA is on 97 percent and a good Sunday for Sweden and Ivory Coast meant both are on 95 percent.But while our model can barely conceive of the Round of 32 without Germany, there is less clarity about where they will finish — unsurprising given the quality of the two teams they are yet to play (Ivory Coast and Ecuador). Consequentially, Germany has a 27 percent chance of finishing in second place, which would mean they would play whoever finishes second in Group I, a tricky-looking section comprising of France, Norway, Senegal and Iraq. All we really know is this: there are many twists and turns to come.