Analysts at research and brokerage firm Bernstein said Robinhood could see “strong tailwinds” as prediction markets posted record trading activity during the early stages of the FIFA World Cup, with daily volumes rising from $2.2 billion on June 11 to $4.8 billion on June 12, when the U.S. played Paraguay.
The figures already exceed the $1.4 billion traded during last season's Super Bowl, Bernstein highlighted.
In a note to clients on Monday, the analysts led by Gautam Chhugani stated that prediction markets have become Robinhood’s fastest-growing product line by revenue since launch.
Bernstein projects Robinhood’s prediction market revenue to increase from $150 million in 2025 to $586 million in 2026, a 286% year-over-year increase. This projected figure would account for approximately 17% of transaction-based revenues and 10% of total revenue for the company in 2026.
The firm also pointed to Robinhood's Rothera partnership as a key differentiator. Rothera is a CFTC-licensed exchange and clearinghouse. Since its May 28 launch, Rothera has traded approximately 200 million contracts in its first 18 days, with FIFA World Cup and MLB contracts accounting for nearly 100% of volumes.
