“Those things really pushed developers to safe-harbor in 2025,” said Elissa Pierce, a WoodMac research analyst. “That’s why we’re seeing less of a push in 2026.”
Still, not every project will meet the deadline. That goes especially for installations planned by smaller developers. For this group, the cost of complying with new and ever-shifting rules is especially high, as they may lack the resources or the risk tolerance to commit to projects amid such uncertainty.
“There are definitely a lot of projects that could be placed in service before the end of 2030 but will not, because the effective requirement that they be safe-harbored is a barrier that they can’t get over,” said David Riester, founder and managing partner of Segue Renewable Infrastructure, which is involved in about 200 solar, battery, and wind projects across the country.
Some of the facilities Segue is planning to invest in are “obviously going to be placed in service before 2030,” he said. Others, he noted, are “way too marginal and might not hit the deadline. And we have a whole bunch of projects in the middle that are probably worth building. But there are risks. And sometimes the risk of safe-harboring is the risk that breaks the decision’s back.”
