Initially, AI’s critics insisted that artificial intelligence was just another software product. AI was presented as a huge commercial opportunity, sure. It was presented as a tool through which humans could enhance their lives, but ultimately it was still understood as a statistical program that knew how to spell. Thanks to the Trump administration’s Anthropic export ban, that illusion is dead.

The more powerful the technology becomes, the more determined governments are to control who can access it

The United States government ordered Anthropic to suspend access for non-US persons to Fable and Mythos 5, its most advanced models, after officials raised national-security concerns. Whatever one thinks of the decision itself, its significance is hard to overstate. Washington has effectively declared that frontier models belong in the same regulatory category as weapons and other strategic technology.

This shouldn’t come as a surprise. Throughout history, technology capable of altering the balance of power have quickly ceased to be treated as an ordinary commercial good. The United States has a history of preventing strategically important technology from reaching potential adversaries. The Anthropic export restriction follows semiconductor export controls, and American intelligence agencies have gone so far as to acquire companies like Crypto AG in order to maintain technological advantages over rivals.