June 14, 2026 — 10:30pm
The rapid expansion of China’s nuclear-powered submarine fleet and long-range missile stockpile is fuelling its growing ability to hit targets in Australia, a threat that could expand dramatically over the next decade, a new analysis warns.
The Lowy Institute paper, to be released on Monday, finds that China’s existing ability to strike the Australian mainland would be turbocharged by game-changing developments: the addition of a new long-range bomber to its military arsenal, as well as the ability to move existing assets closer to Australia via a military base in the Pacific.
The paper, based on open-source intelligence on China’s military modernisation, finds the Chinese navy is set to have 25 nuclear-powered attack submarines at its disposal by 2035, up from an estimated nine today.
Australia is scheduled to acquire its second such vessel – an in-service United States Virginia-class submarine – by this date under the AUKUS nuclear-powered submarine pact.
