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SIGNALS from the US and Iran that a framework agreement could be signed as early as this weekend are being viewed in Washington policy circles not as a final breakthrough but as the start of a tightly managed and uncertain negotiation process.

Analysts at leading American think tanks, including the Atlantic Council and the Brookings Institution, caution that even if a preliminary understanding emerges, it is likely to resemble an outline agreement rather than a comprehensive settlement and would sit within a broader strategic realignment already reshaping the Middle East and the global order.

US President Donald Trump has repeatedly suggested that a “major understanding” with Iran is close, while Iranian officials have also signalled progress towards an interim arrangement.

Diplomats tracking the talks describe the emerging outcome as a memorandum of understanding (MoU) that would establish principles for further negotiations rather than resolve core disputes.