Here’s something you don’t hear often in 2026: a major bank calling global trade “surprisingly stable.” UBS, in a series of research notes released this month, argues that despite the tariff wars and geopolitical chess matches that have defined the last few years, the underlying structure of international commerce hasn’t fractured the way many predicted. The reason, according to UBS, is artificial intelligence.
The bank raised its year-end S&P 500 target to 7,900 from 7,500 as of May 22, citing surging demand for data centers and semiconductors alongside resilient consumer spending.
The bull case, in four parts
UBS identifies four pillars holding up the current bull market: resilient economic recovery, robust profit growth, a supportive Federal Reserve, and the ongoing rollout of AI across industries. UBS sees all four operating simultaneously, which is the kind of alignment that tends to keep equity markets running hot.
The AI investment cycle has broadened well beyond the usual suspects. Earlier phases concentrated on a handful of chipmakers and cloud providers. Now, UBS sees capital flowing into infrastructure buildouts, enterprise applications, and hardware adoption across sectors.
