The flat-roofed Stubshaw Cross Club in Wigan is an unlikely hotseat of power. One visitor describes the 1980s-built social club as “more Phoenix Nights than Game of Thrones”.

With mismatched floor tiles, cheap pints and a big screen showing World Cup games, Andy Burnham’s campaign HQ around 200 miles from Downing Street is buzzing as visiting Cabinet ministers add their signatures to the traditional by-election visitors’ poster.

During the Makerfield by-election the felt tip scrawls are evidence of fealty to the new king. One name is missing: Sir Keir Starmer, who has not made good on his threat to visit the seat.

Barring surprises or polling humdingers, by Friday Burnham, currently Mayor of Greater Manchester will have won the seat and be en route to Westminster to challenge Starmer. But even before the ballot boxes have opened, the electricity of power has already rerouted up the M1. In Labour, Burnham is now the prism for every future decision, from defence spending to local buses.

One Government source said they were worried about a protracted fight if Starmer digs in in the face of Burnham’s challenge, as the Prime Minister has repeatedly indicated.