The University of Michigan’s preliminary June 2026 consumer survey just delivered some welcome news for anyone who’s been nervously watching the Federal Reserve: long-run inflation expectations fell to 3.4%, down from 3.9% in May.
The numbers behind the shift
The preliminary June data from the University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers, covering the period from May 19 to June 8, showed the 5-10 year inflation expectation settling at 3.4%. That’s down from an earlier estimate of 3.8%, and a full half-point below May’s 3.9% reading.
Year-ahead inflation expectations also cooled, dropping to 4.6% from 4.8% the previous month.
Both of these figures remain well above where they were sitting in February 2026. Back then, year-ahead expectations were closer to 3.4%. Then geopolitical tensions, particularly the Iran conflict that escalated earlier this year, sent expectations surging upward.
