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The surplus on the current account of South Africa’s balance of payments widened to 2.4% of GDP in the first quarter for the year from 0.6% in the last three months of 2025, the South African Reserve Bank (Sarb) said on Thursday.The quarter only partially reflects the effect of the Middle East conflict, which has disrupted global oil supply since March, affecting the country’s oil import costs.In rand terms, the current account surplus expanded to R190.7bn in the first quarter — the largest since the third quarter of 2021 — from R50.2bn at the end of last year.The current account records the flow of money in and out of the country through imports and exports, investment earnings and foreign aid. The trade surplus widened to R437.9bn in the first quarter from R282.2bn in the previous three months, as the value of merchandise and net gold exports increased while that of merchandise imports decreased, the central bank said.The latest trade data from the SARB, however, points to a deterioration in the second quarter. The trade surplus nearly halved to R15.2bn in April from R30.2bn in March, as imports rose at a higher pace than the increase in exports.The export flows during April were driven by gold, platinum group metals and petroleum oils, excluding crude. Imports increased due to rises in electric-generating sets and automatic data-processing machines as well as petroleum oils.In April, banking group Citi warned that a prolonged Middle East war extending into the second half of the year will put pressure on the current account, given that South Africa is a net importer of oil, making it vulnerable to the current volatility on global markets.According to Citi’s modelling, every 10% increase in the oil price would result in a 0.25 percentage point deterioration in the current account balance.Thursday’s balance of payments report showed that exports of goods and services rose by R78.3bn in the first quarter, reflecting higher prices and volumes, while imports fell R96.8bn as both prices and volumes decreased.The shortfall on the services, income and current transfer account — the flow of money across borders without the direct physical trade of goods — widened to R247.2bn from R232.1bn. As a ratio of GDP, the deficit was at 3.1% compared with the fourth quarter’s 3%.South Africa’s terms of trade — the ratio of export prices to import prices — improved further in the first quarter of 2026, as the rand price of exported goods and services increased while that of imports decreased, the central bank said.Business Day
