I've been building a Polymarket trading bot for a while now. The strategy was solid - good signal, decent win rate - but the returns felt inconsistent. Some weeks were great, others wiped out gains I'd spent days building. The bot was right more often than not, but the sizing was all over the place.
Then I implemented the Kelly Criterion. It didn't change a single prediction. It just changed how much I bet on each one. The difference was night and day.
Please take a look at my Polymarket account
What Is the Kelly Criterion?
The Kelly Criterion is a formula for calculating the optimal fraction of your bankroll to wager on a bet, given your edge. It was invented by John Kelly at Bell Labs in 1956 and has been used by everyone from blackjack card counters to quantitative hedge funds.
