Thursday 11 June 2026 5:42 am
| Updated:
Wednesday 10 June 2026 11:01 am
Burnham has pledged his support to the Waspi women
Much analysis of the Makerfield by-election focuses on what it means for Keir Starmer and the Labour party’s national fortunes – but how should we assess it on its own terms? Asks Steve AkehurstIt can be stated without much hyperbole that when the people of Makerfield go to the polls next week it will be in one of the most consequential by-elections in British political history. Such a contest struggles to avoid becoming lost in wider narratives, making it hard to assess on a local level and compare it to what current polling tells us. How should we think of the contest in its own terms, then?Firstly, if Andy Burnham becomes the MP for Makerfield in a week’s time – as polling suggests he will do – it will be a remarkable over-performance from him as a candidate. As strange as it sounds, Labour have no right to even be competitive in this seat; they should be 20-odd points behind based on national polling and the government’s unpopularity in the country. Given individual candidates are typically only thought to add a handful of points to any given election locally, if he makes it, it shouldn’t be neglected how impressive that is. It will prove his personal appeal is real – at least for now.
