In a significant move sure to attract the attention of Hollywood executives, the regulatory agency that oversees prediction markets is asking whether it should allow bets on reality shows, music competitions and other entertainment programming as they exist now.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission on Wednesday published a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking seeking public comment on its rules and definitions, a move that would codify the its oversight of things like sports bets on prediction markets, and allow it to ban other sorts of markets.
It all hinges on the proposed definition of “gaming” being sought by the CFTC. Under federal law, the agency is empowered to block markets based on “terrorism,” “assassination,” “war” and “gaming” if it finds they’re contrary to the public interest. Here, the CFTC is arguing that a more nuanced definition of “gaming” is required to meet the moment.
And that means clarifying whether entertainment content counts.
Last month, Survivor crowned Aubry Bracco the winner of its 50th season, but users of Kalshi or Polymarket likely knew that well ahead of time. Before the season even premiered on CBS, Bracco’s odds on the prediction market were over 80 percent, suggesting that insiders, either at the network, production company or some other entity involved in the show, sought to cash in on their inside knowledge.
