While munitions shortages are concerning and in need of rapid redress, deterrence of great power war is highly unlikely to fail due to these shortages.
Research
June 10, 2026
The Iran war has significantly strained U.S. munitions stockpiles, with replenishment expected to take several years.
A high-end conflict over Taiwan could exhaust U.S. weapons inventories much faster than a renewal of the Iran conflict.
Despite these shortages, the Iran war is unlikely to meaningfully undermine deterrence of a Chinese attack on Taiwan. Xi Jinping and Chinese leaders will need to weigh broader factors before any decision to seize Taiwan by force.
"The United States has enough munitions for any plausible scenario in the Iran war, but the depleted inventories have created a…
Heavy use of key US weapons systems during the war on Iran is raising concerns about whether American forces would have enough…
This vulnerability comes as China has set a goal of being capable of taking Taiwan by force by 2027
The US projects confidence in weapons stockpiles, but analysts say dwindling munitions are shaping its war decisions.
A new CSIS report has warned that the United States could take up to three years to replenish key missile stockpiles depleted…
Concerns over the Middle East war straining US weapons stockpiles deepened last month after Acting US Navy Secretary Hung Cao…
