President Trump is calling roughly 4% inflation “great,” which is a word that means something different depending on whether you’re the one setting policy or the one buying groceries.
The argument from the White House goes like this: inflation is elevated primarily because of energy costs tied to the ongoing conflict with Iran, and once that situation stabilizes, prices will naturally come down.
The numbers behind the spin
April 2026 data tells a more nuanced story than the president’s one-word review suggests. The personal consumption expenditures index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, rose 3.8% year-over-year. Core PCE, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, came in at 3.3%.
If you remove energy from the equation and inflation is still running at 3.3%, blaming Iran for the whole problem is a stretch. Core PCE exists specifically to isolate underlying price pressures from temporary commodity swings. A 3.3% reading means inflation has seeped into the broader economy, not just the gas pump.
