Confirming our recent reporting on China's oil demand collapse, crude oil imports to China in May fell to their lowest since October 2017 because of the price spike resulting from the Persian Gulf tanker traffic disruption, plunging refinery margins (due to price ceilings imposed by Beijing), of a slowing economy and the rapid slowdown in the economy. The May total stood at 33 million barrels, or 7.8 million barrels daily, Bloomberg reported, citing Chinese customs data. This is roughly a 30% drop vs the average daily import rate of 11.6 million barrels last year. As previously noted, refinery run rates are down as well, as are fuel exports, with Beijing careful to make sure there is enough diesel and gasoline for the domestic market. All this is happening as the latest batch of Chinese data was "shockingly bad", promptly fears of a China hard landing.As OilPrice notes, the news will likely push oil prices lower as China’s reduced appetite for imported crude is widely seen by traders as a cap on international prices. Demand for oil in China, however, has not fallen particularly. The only reason the country’s refiners can afford to slash imports is the substantial inventory cushion available, estimated at over 1 billion barrels, which we said three months ago is the biggest wildcard in the Iran war oil price shock. However, this cushion is not infinite and, as suggested recently by analysts, China will at some point start to ramp up imports.One relevant question: what is China's pace of SPR drain if any. Recall for the past year Beijing was adding about 500-700K in daily SPR stockpiles; total is said to be ~1.4 billion barrels. China can avoid any Gulf imports for months and drain its SPR instead.
China's Oil Imports Plummet To Eight-Year Low
Confirming our recent reporting on China's oil demand collapse, crude oil imports to China in May fell to their lowest since October 2017











