EIA projects Strait of Hormuz traffic won't normalize until early 2027

Market Snapshot

Strait of Hormuz Normal Traffic market indicates a 1.0% YES probability for traffic normalization by June 15, 2026, unchanged from 24 hours ago and down from 4% a week ago. The July 31 market stands at 31.0% YES, reflecting a decline from 40% seven days prior.

Key Takeaways

The EIA’s forecast suggests that Strait of Hormuz traffic is not expected to return to pre-war levels until early 2027.

This projection appears to impact market expectations negatively for a YES outcome by June 15, 2026.