Summer is here, and it’s time to see if those April breakouts hold up. Here are some players whose futures will differ from their pasts. (Also, I promise more team diversity in the buy section next week!)BuyJJ Wetherholt, 2B, STLPower is naturally streaky because it’s based on fewer events. Even the best home run hitters only knock one out about once every 15 plate appearances, and those events can clump or spread out. Wetherholt hit seven home runs through April, and only two since then, but by the process stats he hasn’t changed. He looks like a solid, five-category contributor, and he might be a little undervalued right now in redraft leagues.Brandon Nimmo, OF, TEXI’m not sure I fully understand what’s going on here, but let’s start with this: By Statcast’s expected stats, Nimmo is one of the unluckiest players in baseball this year. His actual batting average of .249 and slugging of .398 look underwhelming, but well within his range of outcomes. His xBA of .282 and xSLG of .507 tell a very different story. Since the start of May, the difference is even more pronounced. His .205 AVG and .333 SLG are basically unplayable and his .271 xAVG and .535 xSLG are star numbers. His 54.5% hard-hit rate in that period is 11th among qualified hitters, between Nick Kurtz and James Wood. His 13.6 barrel rate in that period (and 11.6% on the season) backs up that story. The most obvious culprit for the difference between his actual and expected stats is Nimmo’s 9.5% HR/FB rate; it was 15% last year. Still, that doesn’t fully explain the gap. Don’t fully buy the expected stats, but don’t buy the ones he’s put up so far either.Dustin May, SP, STLI’m a little late in hopping on the bandwagon here, but something is clearly clicking for May. In his last five starts, his ERA is 3.90 and his FIP is a full run lower. In that stretch, he has an ace-like 28.2 K% and 8.0 BB%, which has coincided with an uptick in his cutter use (which Stuff+ doesn’t like) and slider (which Stuff+ likes). Is this who he is now? It’s too soon to tell, but if the answer is yes, the price will only go up from here.Nathan Eovaldi, SP, TEXIt’s easy to look at Eovaldi, shrug, and say, “He had to get old, eventually.” He’s 36, and the stuff has always been more good than great. Even after a season where his ERA was under two (!), a 4.10 figure and 4.48 FIP just don’t seem crazy. Look a little deeper, however, and he’s got more in the tank. His 3.34 xFIP and 3.38 SIERA show what he could be, and are close to his numbers from the last two years. His 23.6% K-rate is a little down from last year, but he still has a very tidy 5.4% walk rate and the 15% swinging-strike rate would be a career high by a healthy margin. The one caveat here is that Eovaldi has a long history of falling apart in the last two months of the season, so don’t break the bank for him (which you shouldn’t have to anyway).
Buy JJ Wetherholt, sell Christian Yelich, hold Ryan Weathers in fantasy baseball
Owen Poindexter tells you who to deal and whose a steal. Jung Hoo Lee is lights out right now, but offers little outside of average.











