WASHINGTON -- The continued diplomatic engagement between Iran, Israel, and the United States, coupled with a pause in large-scale missile exchanges, offers grounds for cautious optimism despite recent cease-fire violations, according to Nathan Diller, a retired US Air Force colonel and current executive at defense technology firm Mach Industries."The fact that conversations are continuing is positive," Diller said in a June 8 interview with RFE/RL, referring to ongoing efforts to prevent a broader regional conflict after more than 100 days of confrontation. "The fact that every day there's not missiles in the air is a good thing," he said, adding that efforts to prevent the spread of weapons of mass destruction were helping make the world safer.
Nathan Diller
Diller served as assistant director of aeronautics in the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy during Donald Trump's first term.His comments come after Israel and Iran exchanged strikes for the first time since an April cease-fire, raising concerns that the Middle East could slide back toward a wider conflict. While both sides have issued warnings and threats following the latest exchanges, neither appears eager for a full-scale war.Diller said the durability of any cease-fire would depend largely on both parties demonstrating a genuine commitment to peace and adhering to agreed frameworks."Both sides acting in good faith is the most important part," he said. "There is a true desire to come to a proper peace settlement."Strategic Uncertainty Key To DeterrenceWhile policymakers increasingly question whether repeated cease-fire breaches are becoming more costly than the conflict itself, Diller argued that a degree of uncertainty remains central to military deterrence."Strategic uncertainty is a necessary thing," he said, noting adversaries' inability to fully predict the consequences of their actions often discourages escalation.Diller said deterrence depends on maintaining clarity that aggression would be met with a proportional or overwhelming response while preserving enough ambiguity to influence an opponent's calculations.
