Batteries and wind are crushing evening peak prices, and there is more pain to come for gas and coal

This note serves to make two points: More batteries equals more pain for coal and gas generators, and wind is also contributing to the moderation in evening peak prices.

We are about half way, maybe 55 per cent, through the utility and home battery surge and its impact on evening prices.

There is a lot more to come even if no more utility batteries were to get to FID (financial close). The pain to gas and coal from more batteries is going to Intensify. Coal generators will come to need Government support but they still can’t close until more wind is built.

In 2026, 1 gigawatt (GW) of extra wind, 1 GW of utility batteries and 1 GW of peak period behind the meter production have combined to virtually halve evening peak prices, cutting gas and coal output by 2 GW.

Wind and utility batteries are each providing an extra 1 GW in the evening this year compared to last year. Arguably, though, the kicker has been home batteries which I estimate are also cutting evening peak operational demand by maybe 0.8-1.0 GW.