Mumbai: Global oil markets are expected to swing back to oversupply once the Strait of Hormuz reopens, despite the sharp price increases triggered by the waterway's closure, according to a new report released by Fitch Ratings.The ratings agency said the closure of the strategically important shipping route has created a temporary logistical supply shock rather than a permanent loss of oil production capacity. "The disruption does not alter the longer-term direction of the market, which is expected to return to surplus conditions later this year," said Fitch Ratings.The agency's base-case forecast assumes that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen by the end of July, signifying an effective five-month closure. Based on this scenario, it has projected an average Brent crude oil price of $87 per barrel for 2026. The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world's most critical energy chokepoints, handling a substantial share of global oil exports. Any disruption to traffic through the passage has significant implications for international energy markets and global economic stability. "The current price spike reflects a temporary logistical supply shock rather than a lasting loss of production capacity," Fitch Ratings said, adding that Brent crude prices are expected to decline sharply once regular maritime traffic through the strait resumes.The agency forecasts that global oil markets will return to oversupply from September, supported by rapid recovery in West Asian production, strong supply growth from non-OPEC producers, and the possibility of OPEC increasing output beyond pre-conflict production quotas.