Most investors expect rate hikes, but a contrarian case argues falling interest rates are coming as productivity and cooling oil break inflation lower.
UNITED STATES · MARKETS
Key Facts
—The consensus: Most traders expect the US Federal Reserve to hold or raise interest rates, with markets pricing roughly 70% odds of a year-end hike.
—The contrarian view: A minority camp argues the next big move is down, in both inflation and rates.
—The new chair: Fed chair Kevin Warsh has called AI “a significant disinflationary force” and wants room to cut, not hike.
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