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A couple of months ago, I wrote this article on the new war in Iran’s impact on global auto sales, and today I’m writing this to update those observations.
Iran War Update
Little has changed in the last two months. We appear to be at a stalemate. The US doesn’t want to admit defeat by leaving, nor do they have any viable military options. They could blow up a lot of things in Iran, but that is unlikely to cause them to surrender and Iran seems to have an ability to cause a lot of damage to our allies (both Israel and the Gulf states). They appear to have the ability to control the Strait of Hormuz for as long as they want and have the ability to close the Bab El-Mandeb Strait with the help of their friends in Yemen if things escalate. The three options I see are (paraphrased from Jeffrey Sachs’ comments in the video above):
Trump escalates the war, which he and I agree will cause the price of oil to go up significantly as oil production facilities of several countries are likely impacted for the next few years.
