Voter boredom or voter anger can lead to unpredictable electoral outcomes

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There comes a time in the life of governments, especially the long running ones, when after a great run they suddenly appear helpless, incompetent, bumbling. As they say in America, they appear to be on the skids which means sliding down in an uncontrollable way.We must now seriously confront this problem in respect of the 12-year-old Modi government. Its troubles started last summer when Donald Trump, peeved that India would not give him any credit whatsoever for ending that three- day war with Pakistan, suddenly turned on India.He grew closer to Pakistan and increased tariffs from India to ridiculous levels. All this happened so unexpectedly that the government was caught completely unawares.Then came the American-Israeli war with Iran this year and the sharp drop in oil and gas supplies from the Middle East. Again the government was caught off guard.And in the last two months has come the sustained withdrawal of foreign investment in the stock market adding up to over $40 billion. The rupee has depreciated by over 10 per cent against the dollar and the RBI has been struggling to keep volatility down. It’s like what happened in 1990 and 2013. The government has been forced to fiddle with the rules that determine the rate of return on foreign investment. It is, not to put too fine a point on it, a climb down.At the same time the monsoon looks like it won’t be normal. There’s also an El Niño building up. There’s a shortage of fertilizer, and fuel for everything. Overall, there’s a strong possibility of a sharp increase in inflation.Preferences changeWell, you might say, quite correctly, that these things happen. They are happening all over the world, thanks to Donald Trump and that India is not an exception.The problem, however, is the length of time this government has been running the country continuously. Hence the question: are we reaching the stage when people say please go, anyone other than you would be preferable? It has happened very recently to the DMK and the TMC.Most people would say no, the Modi government is nowhere near that point. But it’s still early days. The resentment that turns into massive anti-incumbency takes time to marinate.This fate has befallen such governments in the past and it can overwhelm the Modi government also unless it handles it all with sensitivity. In this regard we also have to bear in mind AAP and TVK. Newcomers can cause massive upsets when the electorate is already fed up.Indeed, even without such a phenomenon in 1964, no one would have thought that, in 1967, the Congress would lose more than two thirds of the State legislatures. In 2011, no one thought that the Congress would be down to just 44 seats in Parliament. But both happened.It’s not just the parties. Even leaders of immense popularity and stature come a-cropper when they annoy enough people. Indira Gandhi was one such. Rajiv Gandhi was another. From hero to zero is not all that uncommon.Voter boredomThe BJP therefore needs to ask itself if this could happen to it. It has a solid base comprising about 220-30 seats. Those are pretty much guaranteed.In this Parliament it has just 240 seats and is already in a small coalition. If it drops another 25, which is not at all inconceivable, it will have to form a much larger coalition.Can this happen? It’s easy to convince yourself that because there is no Opposition and because when push comes to shove you can dribble your way to the goal, you are safe. Many people think, quite wrongly, that SIR and delimitation are exactly this. But those are lawfully mandated exercises, not political tactics of disenfranchisement that may occasionally happen.But when the voters are either bored with you or angry, they will not heed you at all, and you can dribble as much as you want. The mood then becomes “let’s give someone else a chance”. I think there’s a very high probability of this now. After 12 years in power the Modi government is looking jaded.It reminds me of a Cabinet Minister in 2013 who told me and a colleague that they were tired now and that time had come to sit on the verandah and watch the river flow by.Published on June 8, 2026