Airline profits are going to be slashed in half this year because of the jet fuel shortage driven by the war between Iran and the United States, according to the latest projections by the International Air Transport Association (IATA), the global airline industry’s trade organization. “War-related disruptions in the Middle East and rising fuel costs have shifted the outlook for airlines to the worse,” IATA director general Willie Walsh said in a press release. Right after American and Israeli airstrikes began raining down on Iran on February 28, the Islamic Republic shut down virtually all traffic through the critical oil chokepoint of the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation. The move completely disrupted the global energy trade, creating a jet fuel shortage that the head of the International Energy Agency called “the largest energy crisis we have ever faced.”
In March 2026 alone, U.S. airlines spent $5.06 billion on jet fuel, according to the Department of Transportation, dramatically higher than the $3.88 billion spent in March 2025. According to IATA’s projections, the entire global airline industry is expected to bring in a net profit of $23 billion in 2026, half the previous projections of $41 billion and also half the $45 billion the industry brought in last year.
