The International Air Transport Association has projected that global airline profitability will decline sharply in 2026, citing war-related disruptions in the Middle East and rising jet fuel prices as key factors behind the downturn.
According to IATA’s outlook, released on Sunday and made available to our correspondent, airlines are expected to post a combined net profit of $23bn in 2026, nearly half of the $45bn estimated for 2025 and significantly below the earlier projection of $41bn for the year.
The association also noted that carriers in the Middle East are likely to slip into losses as a result of weak demand and operational disruptions, while airlines in other regions are expected to remain profitable, albeit at reduced levels.
Speaking on the outlook, IATA Director-General Willie Walsh said, “War-related disruptions in the Middle East and rising fuel costs have shifted the outlook for airlines to the worst. Globally, airlines are expected to see profitability halve compared to 2025. Profits will shrink from $45 billion in 2025 to $23 billion this year.
“And margins will shrink from 4.2 per cent to 2.0 per cent. All airline bottom lines are suffering from the rapid 70 per cent rise in jet fuel prices. Some of the additional cost is being recuperated by adjusting prices and improving efficiency, but it will not be sufficient to maintain profitability at the previous year’s level. Smaller carriers that started the year with weak balance sheets are certainly struggling.”
