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Or sign-in if you have an account.Middle Eastern airlines are expected to face a difficult year given disruptions from the US war against Iran and surging fuel prices, the IATA projected. Photo by Charly TRIBALLEAU /AFPAirlines expect to carry more passengers this year but earn only half as much profit as in 2025, as high fuel prices don’t appear to be fully deterring travel, according to projections published Sunday.Enjoy the latest local, national and international news.Exclusive articles by Conrad Black, Barbara Kay and others. Plus, special edition NP Platformed and First Reading newsletters and virtual events.Unlimited online access to National Post.National Post ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition to view on any device, share and comment on.Daily puzzles including the New York Times Crossword.Support local journalism.Enjoy the latest local, national and international news.Exclusive articles by Conrad Black, Barbara Kay and others. Plus, special edition NP Platformed and First Reading newsletters and virtual events.Unlimited online access to National Post.National Post ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition to view on any device, share and comment on.Daily puzzles including the New York Times Crossword.Support local journalism.Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience.Access articles from across Canada with one account.Share your thoughts and join the conversation in the comments.Enjoy additional articles per month.Get email updates from your favourite authors.Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience.Access articles from across Canada with one accountShare your thoughts and join the conversation in the commentsEnjoy additional articles per monthGet email updates from your favourite authorsSign In or Create an AccountorThe International Air Transport Association (IATA) predicted its 370 member airlines, which account for 85 percent of global air traffic, will carry 5.1 billion passengers this year.That is up 2.4 percent from 2025, when passenger traffic was estimated to have reached 4.98 billion. The four billion mark was surpassed in 2023.Get a dash of perspective along with the trending news of the day in a very readable format.By signing up you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc.A welcome email is on its way. If you don't see it, please check your junk folder.The next issue of NP Posted will soon be in your inbox.We encountered an issue signing you up. Please try againAsked by reporters about the impact of the war in the Middle East compared to the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020-2021, IATA Director General Willie Walsh replied: “I don’t see this as a crisis.”“You’re looking at an industry that is forecasting growth,” he said. “If you extract the impact of the Middle East, we’re looking at growth of 3.5 percent.”This growth, however, will be accompanied by profitability only half as strong as last year’s, while Middle Eastern airlines are expected to post losses.“War-related disruptions in the Middle East and rising fuel costs have shifted the outlook for airlines to the worse,” Walsh said in a statement.“Profits will shrink from US$45 billion in 2025 to $23 billion this year. And margins will shrink from 4.2 per cent to 2.0 per cent,” he said, referring to the net margin.According to IATA’s calculations, net profit is expected to be $4.50 per passenger, half the 2025 figure.“Under the circumstances, that shows resilience. But it won’t even buy you a hot dog at most of the FIFA World Cup venues and it does not leave much of a buffer should other costs or taxes start rising,” Walsh said in the statement.‘Fuel price shock’With fuel costs rising — and those increases being passed on in part through higher ticket prices — the revenue of IATA member airlines is expected to grow nine percent this year, reaching $1.165 trillion.“Airlines are bearing the brunt of the fuel price shock. While air fares are rising, airlines are still absorbing part of the hike in their bottom lines,” the IATA said.Profitability will vary across different regions of the world, according to the organization’s projections.Middle Eastern airlines, which have traditionally had access to an abundant supply of fuel, are expected to face a difficult year, with net margins projected to turn negative.For these airlines, including Emirates and Qatar Airways, “the immediate recovery path is likely to be driven more by pricing than by a rapid return of volumes,” the IATA said.European airlines are expected to become the most profitable (3.1 percent net margin), followed by those in North America (2.5 percent) and Asia-Pacific (2.1 percent).Despite significant geopolitical uncertainty and the inability to predict the duration of the war, the IATA is not worried about demand. It noted that according to its calculations, the average airline ticket price had fallen 26 percent over the past 10 years.Our website is the place for the latest breaking news, exclusive scoops, longreads and provocative commentary. Please bookmark nationalpost.com and sign up for our daily newsletter, Posted, here. Join the Conversation This website uses cookies to personalize your content (including ads), and allows us to analyze our traffic. Read more about cookies here. By continuing to use our site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy.