California’s gubernatorial race is shaping up as recent primary results suggest that Xavier Becerra and Steve Hilton are likely to face off in the November election. The Los Angeles Times reported that Becerra is currently favored to win, reflecting his strong performance in the primary. The state’s top-two primary system allows the two candidates with the highest votes to advance to the general election, regardless of party affiliation. With Becerra, a Democrat, and Hilton, a Republican, potentially advancing, market activity reflects a shift in expectations for the upcoming election.
Key Takeaways
Market activity suggests that a Becerra-Hilton matchup is consistent with a NO outcome in the market asking whether both advancing candidates will be Democrats.
Current pricing indicates that Becerra finishing first in the primary appears highly likely, with a 98.8% YES probability.
The prospect of a Democrat and Republican advancing seems supported by market movements, with a 95% YES probability.
