Everyone on Wall Street got the same jobs report. Most banks looked at the numbers and quietly shelved their rate cut forecasts. Citigroup looked at the same numbers and said, essentially, “We’re good.”
Economists at Citi, led by chief US economist Andrew Hollenhorst, are holding firm on their call for three 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, targeting September, October, and December. The prediction is increasingly lonely. Other major banks have reduced or outright eliminated their expectations for easing this year after May’s nonfarm payrolls report came in hotter than anyone expected.
The jobs number that shook consensus
The May 2026 employment report, released on June 5, showed the US economy added 172,000 nonfarm payrolls. That figure exceeded all estimates in Bloomberg’s survey of economists.
The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%.
