Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso, Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) presidential flagbearers

The defection of Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso from the African Democratic Congress (ADC) to the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) last month has reshaped Nigeria’s political contest, particularly in the North-west geopolitical zone.

This region has been a stronghold of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), where it has won the presidential and most governorship elections since 2015.

The rapid realignment involving Messrs Obi and Kwankwaso thwarted the opposition’s initial grand plan to present a united opposition against President Bola Tinubu for the January 2027 presidential election. In April, opposition leaders made the “Ibadan Declaration” at an event hosted by Oyo State Governor Seyi Makinde and attended by former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, Messrs Obi and Kwankwaso, as well as other key figures such as Rotimi Amaechi and Aminu Tambuwal. However, the plan unravelled within a month under the weight of competing ambitions, mutual suspicion, and complex legal battles within the ADC.

Seeking a platform free of legal disputes and unopposed presidential and vice presidential nominations, Messrs Obi and Kwankwaso fled to the NDC, where the party’s founder and former Bayelsa State Governor, Seriake Dickson, awarded them the party’s presidential ticket.