The World Cup will fill stadiums. That does not mean it will fill hotel rooms. That is the uncomfortable reality facing U.S. host cities just weeks before kickoff.

FIFA projected $30.5 billion in economic impact, and hotels planned accordingly: higher rates, longer minimum stays, and room blocks held for the international wave expected to arrive.

But that wave has not shown up the way many expected. Instead, demand is skewing domestic, last-minute, price-sensitive, and uneven—far from initial projections. For hotels and host cities, that changes everything.

The international split is the whole game

Host cities were promised a 50/50 international-domestic split that is not coming to fruition, fundamentally altering the economics.