The last time US logistics costs were this high, the Federal Reserve was scrambling to contain the worst inflation in four decades. That was 2022. Now the numbers are back, and they’re bringing the same uncomfortable questions with them.
The Logistics Managers’ Index for March 2026 came in at 65.7, with the Transportation Prices sub-index rocketing to 89.4. That’s a 12.7-point jump in a single month and the highest reading since March 2022, when the Fed was about to embark on its most aggressive rate-hiking cycle in decades.
What’s driving the spike
Tensions in the Middle East, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, have pushed fuel prices sharply higher. Declining transportation capacity has compounded the problem. When you pair shrinking supply with rising fuel costs, the math gets ugly fast.
Aggregate logistics costs in March hit 233.0, the highest since May 2022. The April LMI came in at 69.9, with May hovering around 69.5. Both readings indicate ongoing tightness in freight and warehousing, meaning this isn’t a one-month blip. It’s a trend.
