Eurostat data confirms what many feared: EU exports to the United States cratered 30% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026. The culprit is straightforward. US tariffs, initially imposed under the Trump administration, have fundamentally altered the economics of transatlantic commerce.
The decline is especially jarring because it follows a period of artificially inflated trade volumes. In early 2025, European exporters rushed shipments across the Atlantic to beat anticipated tariff hikes, effectively front-loading demand.
The numbers behind the trade wall
February 2026 alone saw EU exports to the US decline 26.4%, contributing to a 60% contraction in the EU’s overall global trade surplus. Monthly drops have been consistently steep, ranging between 26% and 28% across the quarter.
A US-EU trade framework agreement struck in July 2025 managed to pull effective tariff rates down to around 15%, roughly half the originally threatened 30% rate. In exchange, the EU committed to purchasing $750B in US energy resources and funneling an additional $600B in investments into the US by 2028.
