Scott Bessent wants you to know this inflation thing is going to blow over. The US Treasury Secretary characterized the recent price surge, driven largely by the ongoing US-Iran conflict, as a “short-term blip” during briefings in late May 2026.
That’s a bold claim when inflation just hit 4.5% in April 2026, a nearly three-year high. Most of that increase traces directly back to energy costs that have ballooned since the conflict escalated.
The case for “temporary”
Bessent’s optimism rests on a fairly straightforward thesis: as US domestic oil production ramps up, the energy price shock from the Iran conflict will fade. Pair that with what the administration describes as strong job data, and the Treasury Secretary is painting a picture of an economy absorbing a punch rather than taking a knockout.
But “eventually” is doing a lot of heavy lifting in that sentence. Producers don’t flip a switch and flood the market overnight. Permitting, drilling, and distribution timelines mean any production increase takes months to reach consumers in a meaningful way.
