Only hours after American special forces grabbed Venezuela’s dictator from Caracas on January 3rd, Donald Trump said that Cuba was „going down” next. Since then he has leant on Venezuela’s new ruler, who wishes to avoid being kidnapped like her predecessor, to cut off the supply of cheap oil to Cuba. As the island suffers blackouts, Mr Trump is urging its regime to make a deal with him „before it is too late”.
Mr Trump is right to want Cuba to change. Its communist rulers are vile. For nearly seven decades they have locked up dissidents and impoverished their compatriots. Ordinary Cubans struggle to afford food or medicine. Cronies of the regime dominate the government-run economy and live large. Cuba is also a (mild) threat to American security; it lets Russia and China run listening posts less than 200km from Florida.
Negotiating in the dark
The oil embargo has made Cubans even more miserable than before. It has also brought the regime to the negotiating table. A few political prisoners have been freed, and a flurry of economic reforms have been announced. On March 16th the regime said it would let Cubans living abroad wholly own businesses in Cuba. But Mr Trump and Marco Rubio, his Cuban-American secretary of state, often say they want much more: nothing short of regime change.
