This morning I woke up to news that George Santos is under federal investigation for insider trading on Kalshi. By end of day I had a working anomaly detector monitoring 410 politically-sensitive prediction markets with a live dashboard.
Here's how it happened, what I found, and how you can run it yourself.
What Santos Actually Did
The short version is almost embarrassingly simple. The day before Trump's State of the Union address, Santos posted a video on X saying he'd be in the gallery. Traders on Kalshi piled into "yes he'll attend" contracts and the odds shot up.
What Santos didn't mention was that he'd already placed bets that he wouldn't attend. When he posted "Watching SOTU from an airport tv was not part of the plan! FML" while Trump was speaking, those odds cratered and Santos walked away with tens of thousands of dollars.
