George Santos, the former congressman whose relationship with the truth has always been, shall we say, complicated, is now under investigation by federal regulators for allegedly betting against himself on a prediction market. The Department of Justice and Commodity Futures Trading Commission are looking into whether Santos traded illegally on Kalshi, placing wagers tied to his own attendance at President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address.
Kalshi itself flagged the activity. The platform froze Santos’s account after detecting trades that didn’t square with what he was saying publicly, then reported its findings to both the DOJ and CFTC.
What actually happened
Here’s the setup. Santos had publicly declared he planned to attend the State of the Union on February 24, 2026. Kalshi had a contract trading on whether he’d actually show up, with his attendance odds priced around 75%.
Then, according to the investigation, Santos allegedly placed bets against himself on the same platform. In English: he told the world he was going while simultaneously wagering money that he wouldn’t be there.
