Left: People Power Party candidate Oh Se-hoon for Seoul mayor; right: Democratic Party candidate Chong Won-o for Seoul mayor [YONHAP]
Polls ahead of June 3 local elections showed that results could vary sharply across polling firms, even when the same interviewer-administered telephone survey method was used.
Polls released immediately before the June 3 local-election polling blackout period revealed an unexpected pattern: significant discrepancies even among interviewer-administered telephone interview surveys.
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It has long been observed that election polls can yield notably different results depending on whether they are conducted via live telephone interviews or automated response systems (ARS). The conventional explanation is that live-interview surveys are more likely to capture moderates and less politically oriented voters, while ARS polls tend to attract highly engaged voters and committed partisan supporters.
